Safety Notices

Flying with aeromodels

Dear Pilots.

A recent busy ridge soaring day at Firle has highlighted the fact that many people have forgotten (or never learned) about the hazards of flying with model aircraft and how to avoid them. Aeromodels are a regular sight on our busy slopes and most of the model pilots are skilled and responsible airmen. They should be insured members of a model association and follow a well developed code of practice. For us glider pilots they can be an asset as local metrologists and wind dummies.

The danger of collision is quite obvious and very real. In the past there have been several collisions on our sites, including a fatality where an impact with a hang glider caused a complete structural failure, at a height too low for a parachute to save the pilot.

It should be bourne in mind that when flying a model the pilot will be fixedly staring at his aircraft. This tunnel vision effect means that by the time he has become aware of a hang glider or paraglider entering his narrow field of vision, he has very little time to plan and execute avoiding action. For this reason we have agreed that when a glider pilot is approaching an area where models are flying he should make his approach known by shouting a friendly warning along the lines of “Hello! Paraglider coming through!” Thus the model aircraft pilot has much more time to assess the situation and take safe action. Clearly we should pass the area of intense model activity quickly and directly.

It is worth noting that the pilot of a model has very poor depth perception, making it very hard to judge if his machine will pass in front of, or behind another craft. Or hit it. When another aircraft is nearby the model pilot should always manoeuvre to ensure “visual separation”. i.e. that the two craft will always be separate up and down, or left and right but never occupy the same point in his vision.

This and other important safety information is included in the SHGC sites guide.

Happy flying,

Dave Lewis, SHGC Sites Officer.

Tick alert - Danger

Ticks appear to be around in large numbers this year. Perhaps because of the lack of winter frosts.

They are known to transmit Lyme's Disease in Sussex. Lyme's Disease is very serious and can have life changing consequences.

They have been spotted so far at Caburn and below Firle.

They wait on blades of grass and crawl onto warm things, like unprotected legs. There they bury their barbed feeding nozzle and fill up with blood. Eventually they will drop off.
If removing one do not squeeze it or apply any of the old wives remedies. If they regurgitate their contents chance of infection is much higher. Instead cut a V into a piece of thin, stiff plastic and use it under the head like a claw hammer to pull them out whole. The barbs are like a Christmas tree, so twisting can help.

The tick can be kept for later analysis. They can be tested for the disease before the victim's symptoms develop.

Early symptoms are described as a red "bulls eye" reaction. If you have one of those, even if you didn't see the offending beast, then you should suspect Lyme's disease and seek medical advice urgently.

Long trousers, not sitting around in livestock fields and DEET insect repellent can help avoid bites. Or staying in the air. It might be an idea to avoid leaving harnesses lying in the grass.

Ozium 2 Grounded

Just received from Ozone:

“We have found a potential issue with the Ozium2 reserve pod and have issued a safety notice.

Please check our website for the full details.

Replacement pods are being prepared and will be sent out asap.

Ozium2 harnesses must not be flown before the pod has been replaced”

DANGER AREA RESTRICTION ALL WEEK!!

TEMPO DANGER AREA (TDA) ESTABLISHED (EG D198) WI AREA BOUNDED BY
505554N 0000721W - 505046N 0000240E - 504958N 0000139E - 505508N
0000822W - 505554N 0000721W (DITCHLING, EAST SUSSEX). BEYOND VISUAL
LINE OF SIGHT UAS OPERATIONS CONTAINED WHOLLY WITHIN THE TDA. A
DANGER AREA ACTIVITY INFORMATION SERVICE (DAAIS) WILL BE AVAILABLE
FROM FARNBOROUGH LOWER AIRSPACE RADAR SERVICE EAST 123.225 MHZ.
2018-05-0267/AS2

Is it Safe?

Mike Meier, of Wills Wings hang gliders fame, wrote this article for the US Hang Gliding magazine back in 1998. As I see it, the only thing that has changed since then is that the sound of fracturing aluminium has been largely replaced by that of ripping cloth, but the pretext remains the same and is relevant for all free flight pilots:

If I were to ask you to characterize the view that the “uninformed public” has of hang gliding, what might you say? You might say that they think of hang gliding as a “death sport,” or, at the very least, an “unreasonably unsafe activity.” You might say that they think hang glider pilots are “thrill seekers” who recklessly disregard the inherent risks in what they do. You might say that they are under the mistaken impression that hang gliders are fragile, unstable flying contraptions blown about by the winds and only partially, and inadequately under the control of the occupant.

If confronted by this attitude in a spectator, how might you respond? You might say that once upon a time, in the very early days of the sport, it was true that gliders were dangerous, and pilots behaved in an unsafe manner. You might point out that in recent years, however, the quality of the equipment, the quality of training, and the level of maturity of the pilots have all improved immeasurably. You might point to the fine aerodynamic qualities of today’s hang gliders, the rigorous certification programs in place for gliders, instructors, and pilots, and you might give examples of the respectable occupations of many hang glider pilots; doctors, lawyers, computer programmers. You might make the claim that hang gliding today is one of the safer forms of aviation, and is no more risky than many other action oriented sports.

Later on, you might laugh about the ignorant attitude of the “woofo.” Or, you might wonder, “Why is it, after all these years, that the public still doesn’t understand? Why can’t we educate them about what hang gliding is really like, and how safe and reasonable it really is?”

So now let me ask you another question. What if they’re right? What if they’re right and we’re wrong? And what if I can prove it to you?

Let’s take a look. First of all, you have to admit that year after year we continue to kill ourselves at a pretty depressing rate. Anybody that’s been around this sport for very long has probably lost at least one friend or acquaintance to a fatal hang gliding accident. Most of us who have been around for more than 20 years have lost more than we care to think about. It’s true that we have seemingly made some improvement in the overall numbers in the last twenty five years; between 1974 and 1979 we averaged 31 fatalities a year. Since 1982 we’ve averaged about 10 per year. In the last six or eight years, we may have dropped that to seven per year. On the other hand, what has happened to the denominator in that equation? In 1978, there were 16 U.S. manufacturers viable enough to send teams to the manufacturer’s competition in Telluride. Today we don’t even have a manufacturer’s competition. My guess is that the fatality rate hasn’t changed much, and almost certainly hasn’t improved in the last ten years. I’d guess it’s about one per thousand per year, which is what I guessed it was ten years ago.

So the question is why? The equipment gets better and more high tech every year, we know more about teaching than ever, we’ve got parachutes, rockets to deploy them, full face kevlar helmets, wheels, FM radios for emergency rescue. We’re all about 20 years older, and commensurately wiser and more conservative. How come we’re not safer?

I’ve been asking myself variations on this question for as long as I can remember. Three years ago I had an accident, and in thinking about that accident I thought that maybe I had stumbled onto some little insight into the answer. I’ll share it with you.

Here’s the story. (If you don’t like reading “there I was” stories, or other people’s confessional accident reports, skip this part. I won’t be offended.) We were out doing some production test flying at Marshall Peak in San Bernardino. For those of you who haven’t flown there, Marshall is a rounded knob in the middle of a 2200? tall ridge in the foothills along the northern border of the east end of the Los Angeles basin. It’s a very reliable flying site; probably flyable 300 days a year and soarable on most of them. It was July, in the middle of the day, but the conditions were not particularly strong. We were landing on top, which we do whenever conditions are not too rowdy, because it vastly enhances efficiency. I was flying a Spectrum 165, and setting up my approach. I’ve logged about 100 top landings a year at Marshall for each of the last 15 years. Even so, I know for a fact that at the time, I was not complacent. I know because I have a clear memory of what I was thinking as I set up my approach. In two weeks, I was due to leave on a three week family vacation abroad, and I was thinking, “You damn well better not get yourself hurt before your trip or your wife is going to kill you.” At the same time, I wasn’t anxious. I was flying a Spectrum, the conditions were only moderate. I’d made lots of successful landings on more difficult gliders in more challenging conditions. I hadn’t had an unsuccessful landing attempt in longer than I could remember. I was relaxed, yet focused. My intent was simply to fly a perfect approach. Such intent is always a good idea when top landing at Marshall; the landing is challenging, and a sloppy approach can quickly get you into trouble. I knew exactly where I wanted to be at every point in the approach, position, heading, altitude and airspeed. I executed the approach exactly as I wanted to.

You top land at Marshall half crosswind, gliding up the back side of the hill. You come in hot, because the gradient can be extreme, and there’s often some degree of turbulence. The time interval from 40 mph dive, through round out, to flare is very short. I was halfway through this interval, past the point where one is normally rocked by whatever turbulence is present, when both my left wing and the nose dropped suddenly and severely. I went immediately to full opposite roll control, and managed to get the wings and nose just level when the basetube hit. Having turned 90 degrees, I was traveling mostly downwind, at a groundspeed of probably 30 mph. The right downtube collapsed immediately, and the right side of my face and body hit the ground hard.

Very briefly, I thought I might die. For a slightly longer time, I thought about paralysis. Within a minute, I knew I was mostly ok. In the end, I got away with a slightly sprained ankle, and a moderate case of whiplash. I had three weeks to think about the accident while I bounced around the rutted dirt roads of East Africa trying in vain to keep my head balanced directly over my spine to moderate the pain.

The thing was, I never considered at the time of the landing that I was anywhere near “pushing the envelope.” I’ve done dozens of landings at Marshall where I did feel that way. All during the previous two summers I had been top landing RamAirs at Marshall in the middle of the day in much stronger conditions. I had never had a crash. Thinking about it, I couldn’t even remember the last time I had broken a downtube. I tried in vain to think of a clue that I had missed that this was going to be a dangerous landing. Finally, I was left with only one conclusion. What happened to me was nothing more or less than exactly what the potential result was, during any of the times I had landed under similar, or more challenging circumstances. That was a dangerous landing because of what could have (and did) happen. The corollary, of course, is that all the other landings I had done, on more challenging gliders, in more challenging conditions, were also dangerous. (In fact, they were more dangerous.) And they were so in spite of the fact that no bad results ensued in any of those landings.

And suddenly I felt like I was beginning to understand something that I hadn’t previously understood.

You see, here’s how I think it works. The overriding determinant of pilot safety in hang gliding is the quality of pilot decision making. Skill level, experience, quality of equipment; all those things are not determinants. What those things do is determine one’s upper limits. More skill gives you a higher limit, as does more experience or better equipment. But safety is not a function of how high your limits are, but rather of how well you stay within those limits. And that, is determined by one thing; the quality of the decisions you make. And how good do those decisions have to be? Simply put, they have to be just about perfect. Consider the type of decisions you have to make when you fly. Do I fly today? Do I start my launch run at this time, in this cycle? Do I have room to turn back at the hill in this thermal? Can I continue to follow this thermal back as the wind increases and still make it back over the ridge? Each time you face such a decision, there is a level of uncertainty about how the conditions will unfold. If you make the “go” decision when you’re 99% sure you can make it, you’ll be wrong on average once every 100 decisions. At 99.9%, you’ll still be wrong once every thousand decisions. You probably make 50 important decisions for every hour of airtime, so a thousand decisions comes every 20 hours, or about once or twice a year for the average pilot.

So, to be safe, you have to operate at a more than 99.9% certainty. But in reality, 99.9% is virtually impossible to distinguish from 100%, so really, for all intents and purposes, you have to be 100% sure to be safe.

And now I think we can begin to understand the problem. Let’s first consider this; we all have a strong incentive to make the “go” decision. The “go” decision means I launch now, relieve my impatience to get into the air and avoid the annoyance of the pilots waiting behind me, instead of waiting for the next cycle because the wind is a little cross and the glider doesn’t feel quite balanced. It means I turn back in this thermal, and climb out above launch and stay up, instead of taking the conservative choice and risking sinking below the top and maybe losing it all the way to the LZ. It means I choose to fly today, even though conditions are beyond my previous experience, rather than face listening to the “there I was” stories of my friends in the LZ at the end of the day, knowing that I could have flown but didn’t, and knowing that they did and were rewarded with enjoyable soaring flights.

So the incentive is there to choose “go.” The only thing we have to counter this incentive is a healthy respect for the possible dangers of failure, and our ability to evaluate our prospects for success. And here’s where we get caught by a mathematical trap. Let’s say I’m making my decisions at the 99% level, and so are all my friends. Out of every 100 decisions, 99 do not result in any negative consequence. Even if they’re bad decisions, nothing bad happens. Since nothing bad happens, I think they’re good decisions. And this applies not just to my decisions, but to my friends’ decisions as well, which I observe. They must be good decisions, they worked out didn’t they? The next natural consequence of this is that I lower my decision threshold a little. Now I’m making decisions at the 98% level, and still, they’re working out. The longer this goes on, the more I’m being reinforced for making bad decisions, and the more likely I am to make them.

Eventually, the statistics catch up with me, and my descending threshold collides with the increasing number of opportunities I’ve created through bad decisions. Something goes wrong; I blow a launch, or a landing, or get blown over the back, or hit the hill on the downwind side of a thermal. If I’m lucky it’s a $50 downtube or a $200 leading edge. If I’m unlucky, I’m dead.

If we can agree at this point that making 100% decisions is the only safe way to fly, it then becomes interesting to consider, as an aside, what the sport of hang gliding would look like if we all operated this way. Pilots would choose to fly in milder, safer weather conditions. They would operate much more comfortably within their skill and experience limitations. They would choose to fly more docile, more stable, easier to fly gliders. Landings would be gentle, and under control. Hang glider manufacturers would sell two downtubes and one keel for every glider they build (the ones that come on the glider) instead of three or four replacement sets like they do now. There would be far, far fewer accidents. (As it is now, there are about 200 per year reported to USHPA.) There wouldn’t be any fatalities, except maybe for one every couple of years if a pilot happened to die of a heart attack while flying (it’s happened once so far that I can remember).

Since this isn’t anything like what the sport of hang gliding does look like, we might conclude that hang gliding, as it is presently practiced, is an unreasonably unsafe activity practiced by people who lack a proper and reasonable regard for their personal safety. In other words, we might conclude that the “uninformed public” has been right about hang gliding all along.

If you don’t like that conclusion, I’m pretty sure you’re not going to like any of the coming ones either. But let’s first ask this question, if we wanted to address this problem of bad decisions being reinforced because they look like good decisions, how would we do it? The answer is, we need to become more critically analytical of all of our flying decisions, both before and after the fact. We need to find a way to identify those bad decisions that didn’t result in any bad result. Let’s take an example. You’re thermalling at your local site on a somewhat windy day. The thermals weaken with altitude, and the wind grows stronger. You need to make sure you can always glide back to the front of the ridge after drifting back with a thermal. You make a decision ahead of time, that you will always get back to the ridge above some minimum altitude above the ridge top; say 800 feet. You monitor your drift, and the glide angle back to the ridge, and leave the thermal when you think you need to in order to make your goal. If you come back in at 1000? AGL, you made a good decision. If you come back in a 400, you made a bad decision. The bad decision didn’t cost you, because you built in a good margin, but it’s important that you recognize it as a bad decision. Without having gone through both the before and after analyses of the decision, (setting the 800 foot limit, observing the 400 foot result), you would never be aware of the existence of a bad decision, or the need to improve your decision making process.

This was one of the main ideas behind the safe pilot award. The idea wasn’t to say that if you never crashed hard enough to need a doctor, you were a safe pilot. The idea was to get pilots thinking about the quality of their decisions. Not just, “Did I get hurt on that flight?”, but “Could I have gotten hurt?” During the first couple of years of the safe pilot award program, I got a few calls and letters from pilots who would tell me about an incident they’d had, and ask for my opinion as to whether it should be cause for them to re-start their count of consecutive safe flights. I would give them my opinion, but always point out that in the end it didn’t matter, what was important was that they were actively thinking about how dangerous the incident had really been; i.e. what was the actual quality of their decision making.

Looking back on it now, I would say that the criteria for a “safe flight” – (any flight which didn’t involve an injury indicating the need for treatment by a licensed medical professional) – was too lenient. Today I would say it shouldn’t count as a safe flight if, for example, you broke a downtube. A few years ago (or maybe it was ten or twelve, when you get to be my age, it’s hard to tell), we had a short-lived controversy over “dangerous bars.” The idea was that manufacturers were making dangerous control bars, because when smaller pilots with smaller bones crashed, their bones broke before the downtubes did. (Today, most of the complaints I hear are from the other side, pilots who would rather have stronger downtubes even if their bones break before the downtubes, because they’re tired of buying $65 downtubes, which they’re doing with some regularity.) I have a different suggestion for both of these problems. Why don’t we just stop crashing?

Of course I know why. The first reason is, we don’t even recognize it as “crashing.” I continually hear from pilots who say they broke a downtube “on landing.” (I even hear from pilots who tell me – with a straight face, I swear – that they broke a keel, or a leading edge “on landing.”) The second reason is, we don’t think it’s possible to fly without breaking downtubes from time to time. I mean after all, sometimes you’re coming in to land and the wind switches, or that thermal breaks off, or you’re trying to squeak it into that small field, and you just can’t help flaring with a wing down, sticking the leading edge, ground looping, slamming the nose (WHAAAAACK!) and breaking a downtube.

We regularly observe our fellow pilots breaking downtubes, which also reinforces our perception that this is “normal.” I’m going to go out on a limb here. I’m going to say that if you’ve broken more than one downtube in the last five years of flying, you’re doing something seriously and fundamentally wrong. Either you’re flying too hot a glider for your skills, or you’re flying in too challenging conditions, or at too difficult a flying site.

Now let’s ask one more thing. If hang glider pilots stopped dying, and if hang glider landing areas stopped resounding with the sound of WHAAAAAACK every second or third landing, (in other words, if hang gliding started looking like fun, instead of looking both terrifying and deadly), do you think maybe the public’s perception of the sport might change? (Not do you think more of them would want to do it, in truth, no they probably still wouldn’t.) But do you think maybe they’d stop thinking we were crazy for doing it?

Maybe they would.

And maybe they’d be right.

Is it Safe?

Mike Meier, of Wills Wings hang gliders fame, wrote this article for the US Hang Gliding magazine back in 1998. As I see it, the only thing that has changed since then is that the sound of fracturing aluminium has been largely replaced by that of ripping cloth, but the pretext remains the same and is relevant for all free flight pilots:

If I were to ask you to characterize the view that the “uninformed public” has of hang gliding, what might you say? You might say that they think of hang gliding as a “death sport,” or, at the very least, an “unreasonably unsafe activity.” You might say that they think hang glider pilots are “thrill seekers” who recklessly disregard the inherent risks in what they do. You might say that they are under the mistaken impression that hang gliders are fragile, unstable flying contraptions blown about by the winds and only partially, and inadequately under the control of the occupant.

If confronted by this attitude in a spectator, how might you respond? You might say that once upon a time, in the very early days of the sport, it was true that gliders were dangerous, and pilots behaved in an unsafe manner. You might point out that in recent years, however, the quality of the equipment, the quality of training, and the level of maturity of the pilots have all improved immeasurably. You might point to the fine aerodynamic qualities of today’s hang gliders, the rigorous certification programs in place for gliders, instructors, and pilots, and you might give examples of the respectable occupations of many hang glider pilots; doctors, lawyers, computer programmers. You might make the claim that hang gliding today is one of the safer forms of aviation, and is no more risky than many other action oriented sports.

Later on, you might laugh about the ignorant attitude of the “woofo.” Or, you might wonder, “Why is it, after all these years, that the public still doesn’t understand? Why can’t we educate them about what hang gliding is really like, and how safe and reasonable it really is?”

So now let me ask you another question. What if they’re right? What if they’re right and we’re wrong? And what if I can prove it to you?

Let’s take a look. First of all, you have to admit that year after year we continue to kill ourselves at a pretty depressing rate. Anybody that’s been around this sport for very long has probably lost at least one friend or acquaintance to a fatal hang gliding accident. Most of us who have been around for more than 20 years have lost more than we care to think about. It’s true that we have seemingly made some improvement in the overall numbers in the last twenty five years; between 1974 and 1979 we averaged 31 fatalities a year. Since 1982 we’ve averaged about 10 per year. In the last six or eight years, we may have dropped that to seven per year. On the other hand, what has happened to the denominator in that equation? In 1978, there were 16 U.S. manufacturers viable enough to send teams to the manufacturer’s competition in Telluride. Today we don’t even have a manufacturer’s competition. My guess is that the fatality rate hasn’t changed much, and almost certainly hasn’t improved in the last ten years. I’d guess it’s about one per thousand per year, which is what I guessed it was ten years ago.

So the question is why? The equipment gets better and more high tech every year, we know more about teaching than ever, we’ve got parachutes, rockets to deploy them, full face kevlar helmets, wheels, FM radios for emergency rescue. We’re all about 20 years older, and commensurately wiser and more conservative. How come we’re not safer?

I’ve been asking myself variations on this question for as long as I can remember. Three years ago I had an accident, and in thinking about that accident I thought that maybe I had stumbled onto some little insight into the answer. I’ll share it with you.

Here’s the story. (If you don’t like reading “there I was” stories, or other people’s confessional accident reports, skip this part. I won’t be offended.) We were out doing some production test flying at Marshall Peak in San Bernardino. For those of you who haven’t flown there, Marshall is a rounded knob in the middle of a 2200? tall ridge in the foothills along the northern border of the east end of the Los Angeles basin. It’s a very reliable flying site; probably flyable 300 days a year and soarable on most of them. It was July, in the middle of the day, but the conditions were not particularly strong. We were landing on top, which we do whenever conditions are not too rowdy, because it vastly enhances efficiency. I was flying a Spectrum 165, and setting up my approach. I’ve logged about 100 top landings a year at Marshall for each of the last 15 years. Even so, I know for a fact that at the time, I was not complacent. I know because I have a clear memory of what I was thinking as I set up my approach. In two weeks, I was due to leave on a three week family vacation abroad, and I was thinking, “You damn well better not get yourself hurt before your trip or your wife is going to kill you.” At the same time, I wasn’t anxious. I was flying a Spectrum, the conditions were only moderate. I’d made lots of successful landings on more difficult gliders in more challenging conditions. I hadn’t had an unsuccessful landing attempt in longer than I could remember. I was relaxed, yet focused. My intent was simply to fly a perfect approach. Such intent is always a good idea when top landing at Marshall; the landing is challenging, and a sloppy approach can quickly get you into trouble. I knew exactly where I wanted to be at every point in the approach, position, heading, altitude and airspeed. I executed the approach exactly as I wanted to.

You top land at Marshall half crosswind, gliding up the back side of the hill. You come in hot, because the gradient can be extreme, and there’s often some degree of turbulence. The time interval from 40 mph dive, through round out, to flare is very short. I was halfway through this interval, past the point where one is normally rocked by whatever turbulence is present, when both my left wing and the nose dropped suddenly and severely. I went immediately to full opposite roll control, and managed to get the wings and nose just level when the basetube hit. Having turned 90 degrees, I was traveling mostly downwind, at a groundspeed of probably 30 mph. The right downtube collapsed immediately, and the right side of my face and body hit the ground hard.

Very briefly, I thought I might die. For a slightly longer time, I thought about paralysis. Within a minute, I knew I was mostly ok. In the end, I got away with a slightly sprained ankle, and a moderate case of whiplash. I had three weeks to think about the accident while I bounced around the rutted dirt roads of East Africa trying in vain to keep my head balanced directly over my spine to moderate the pain.

The thing was, I never considered at the time of the landing that I was anywhere near “pushing the envelope.” I’ve done dozens of landings at Marshall where I did feel that way. All during the previous two summers I had been top landing RamAirs at Marshall in the middle of the day in much stronger conditions. I had never had a crash. Thinking about it, I couldn’t even remember the last time I had broken a downtube. I tried in vain to think of a clue that I had missed that this was going to be a dangerous landing. Finally, I was left with only one conclusion. What happened to me was nothing more or less than exactly what the potential result was, during any of the times I had landed under similar, or more challenging circumstances. That was a dangerous landing because of what could have (and did) happen. The corollary, of course, is that all the other landings I had done, on more challenging gliders, in more challenging conditions, were also dangerous. (In fact, they were more dangerous.) And they were so in spite of the fact that no bad results ensued in any of those landings.

And suddenly I felt like I was beginning to understand something that I hadn’t previously understood.

You see, here’s how I think it works. The overriding determinant of pilot safety in hang gliding is the quality of pilot decision making. Skill level, experience, quality of equipment; all those things are not determinants. What those things do is determine one’s upper limits. More skill gives you a higher limit, as does more experience or better equipment. But safety is not a function of how high your limits are, but rather of how well you stay within those limits. And that, is determined by one thing; the quality of the decisions you make. And how good do those decisions have to be? Simply put, they have to be just about perfect. Consider the type of decisions you have to make when you fly. Do I fly today? Do I start my launch run at this time, in this cycle? Do I have room to turn back at the hill in this thermal? Can I continue to follow this thermal back as the wind increases and still make it back over the ridge? Each time you face such a decision, there is a level of uncertainty about how the conditions will unfold. If you make the “go” decision when you’re 99% sure you can make it, you’ll be wrong on average once every 100 decisions. At 99.9%, you’ll still be wrong once every thousand decisions. You probably make 50 important decisions for every hour of airtime, so a thousand decisions comes every 20 hours, or about once or twice a year for the average pilot.

So, to be safe, you have to operate at a more than 99.9% certainty. But in reality, 99.9% is virtually impossible to distinguish from 100%, so really, for all intents and purposes, you have to be 100% sure to be safe.

And now I think we can begin to understand the problem. Let’s first consider this; we all have a strong incentive to make the “go” decision. The “go” decision means I launch now, relieve my impatience to get into the air and avoid the annoyance of the pilots waiting behind me, instead of waiting for the next cycle because the wind is a little cross and the glider doesn’t feel quite balanced. It means I turn back in this thermal, and climb out above launch and stay up, instead of taking the conservative choice and risking sinking below the top and maybe losing it all the way to the LZ. It means I choose to fly today, even though conditions are beyond my previous experience, rather than face listening to the “there I was” stories of my friends in the LZ at the end of the day, knowing that I could have flown but didn’t, and knowing that they did and were rewarded with enjoyable soaring flights.

So the incentive is there to choose “go.” The only thing we have to counter this incentive is a healthy respect for the possible dangers of failure, and our ability to evaluate our prospects for success. And here’s where we get caught by a mathematical trap. Let’s say I’m making my decisions at the 99% level, and so are all my friends. Out of every 100 decisions, 99 do not result in any negative consequence. Even if they’re bad decisions, nothing bad happens. Since nothing bad happens, I think they’re good decisions. And this applies not just to my decisions, but to my friends’ decisions as well, which I observe. They must be good decisions, they worked out didn’t they? The next natural consequence of this is that I lower my decision threshold a little. Now I’m making decisions at the 98% level, and still, they’re working out. The longer this goes on, the more I’m being reinforced for making bad decisions, and the more likely I am to make them.

Eventually, the statistics catch up with me, and my descending threshold collides with the increasing number of opportunities I’ve created through bad decisions. Something goes wrong; I blow a launch, or a landing, or get blown over the back, or hit the hill on the downwind side of a thermal. If I’m lucky it’s a $50 downtube or a $200 leading edge. If I’m unlucky, I’m dead.

If we can agree at this point that making 100% decisions is the only safe way to fly, it then becomes interesting to consider, as an aside, what the sport of hang gliding would look like if we all operated this way. Pilots would choose to fly in milder, safer weather conditions. They would operate much more comfortably within their skill and experience limitations. They would choose to fly more docile, more stable, easier to fly gliders. Landings would be gentle, and under control. Hang glider manufacturers would sell two downtubes and one keel for every glider they build (the ones that come on the glider) instead of three or four replacement sets like they do now. There would be far, far fewer accidents. (As it is now, there are about 200 per year reported to USHPA.) There wouldn’t be any fatalities, except maybe for one every couple of years if a pilot happened to die of a heart attack while flying (it’s happened once so far that I can remember).

Since this isn’t anything like what the sport of hang gliding does look like, we might conclude that hang gliding, as it is presently practiced, is an unreasonably unsafe activity practiced by people who lack a proper and reasonable regard for their personal safety. In other words, we might conclude that the “uninformed public” has been right about hang gliding all along.

If you don’t like that conclusion, I’m pretty sure you’re not going to like any of the coming ones either. But let’s first ask this question, if we wanted to address this problem of bad decisions being reinforced because they look like good decisions, how would we do it? The answer is, we need to become more critically analytical of all of our flying decisions, both before and after the fact. We need to find a way to identify those bad decisions that didn’t result in any bad result. Let’s take an example. You’re thermalling at your local site on a somewhat windy day. The thermals weaken with altitude, and the wind grows stronger. You need to make sure you can always glide back to the front of the ridge after drifting back with a thermal. You make a decision ahead of time, that you will always get back to the ridge above some minimum altitude above the ridge top; say 800 feet. You monitor your drift, and the glide angle back to the ridge, and leave the thermal when you think you need to in order to make your goal. If you come back in at 1000? AGL, you made a good decision. If you come back in a 400, you made a bad decision. The bad decision didn’t cost you, because you built in a good margin, but it’s important that you recognize it as a bad decision. Without having gone through both the before and after analyses of the decision, (setting the 800 foot limit, observing the 400 foot result), you would never be aware of the existence of a bad decision, or the need to improve your decision making process.

This was one of the main ideas behind the safe pilot award. The idea wasn’t to say that if you never crashed hard enough to need a doctor, you were a safe pilot. The idea was to get pilots thinking about the quality of their decisions. Not just, “Did I get hurt on that flight?”, but “Could I have gotten hurt?” During the first couple of years of the safe pilot award program, I got a few calls and letters from pilots who would tell me about an incident they’d had, and ask for my opinion as to whether it should be cause for them to re-start their count of consecutive safe flights. I would give them my opinion, but always point out that in the end it didn’t matter, what was important was that they were actively thinking about how dangerous the incident had really been; i.e. what was the actual quality of their decision making.

Looking back on it now, I would say that the criteria for a “safe flight” – (any flight which didn’t involve an injury indicating the need for treatment by a licensed medical professional) – was too lenient. Today I would say it shouldn’t count as a safe flight if, for example, you broke a downtube. A few years ago (or maybe it was ten or twelve, when you get to be my age, it’s hard to tell), we had a short-lived controversy over “dangerous bars.” The idea was that manufacturers were making dangerous control bars, because when smaller pilots with smaller bones crashed, their bones broke before the downtubes did. (Today, most of the complaints I hear are from the other side, pilots who would rather have stronger downtubes even if their bones break before the downtubes, because they’re tired of buying $65 downtubes, which they’re doing with some regularity.) I have a different suggestion for both of these problems. Why don’t we just stop crashing?

Of course I know why. The first reason is, we don’t even recognize it as “crashing.” I continually hear from pilots who say they broke a downtube “on landing.” (I even hear from pilots who tell me – with a straight face, I swear – that they broke a keel, or a leading edge “on landing.”) The second reason is, we don’t think it’s possible to fly without breaking downtubes from time to time. I mean after all, sometimes you’re coming in to land and the wind switches, or that thermal breaks off, or you’re trying to squeak it into that small field, and you just can’t help flaring with a wing down, sticking the leading edge, ground looping, slamming the nose (WHAAAAACK!) and breaking a downtube.

We regularly observe our fellow pilots breaking downtubes, which also reinforces our perception that this is “normal.” I’m going to go out on a limb here. I’m going to say that if you’ve broken more than one downtube in the last five years of flying, you’re doing something seriously and fundamentally wrong. Either you’re flying too hot a glider for your skills, or you’re flying in too challenging conditions, or at too difficult a flying site.

Now let’s ask one more thing. If hang glider pilots stopped dying, and if hang glider landing areas stopped resounding with the sound of WHAAAAAACK every second or third landing, (in other words, if hang gliding started looking like fun, instead of looking both terrifying and deadly), do you think maybe the public’s perception of the sport might change? (Not do you think more of them would want to do it, in truth, no they probably still wouldn’t.) But do you think maybe they’d stop thinking we were crazy for doing it?

Maybe they would.

And maybe they’d be right.

Independence reserve container safety notice

Affects only Silver lined reserve containers with an unreinforced single handle attachmwnt loop. See s.n. attached.

Safety Bulletin: EASINESS and EASINESS 2 reversible harnesses

http://www.advance.ch/en/home/news-pages/sicherheitsmitteilung-retter-ve...

The connection between the V-lines and the reserve on all EASINESS and EASINESS 2 reversible harnesses must be changed at the next opportunity. A replacement connection line can be obtained from ADVANCE free of charge.

A routine spot check of ADVANCE incoming goods has revealed that the connection between the V-lines and reserve on the EASINESS and EASINESS 2 reversible harnesses does not conform to the French manufacturer Techni Sangle’s guaranteed quality, in other words it is not strong enough. Because it cannot be assured beyond doubt that all the already-built connection lines conform to the required strength based on the inspection sample, ADVANCE have instigated a precautionary recall for all reserve V-connection lower lines for the EASINESS and EASINESS 2 harnesses. Other harnesses conform to their specifications and are not affected. Because of the measured values discovered on the spot check it is possible that a reserve thrown with such a connection at maximum load (120 daN) and at a speed approaching that of free fall might experience a strength problem. Even though such a set of circumstances is extremely unlikely to occur in practical use, we advise all owners of EASINESS and EASINESS 2 reversible harnesses to order the free replacement kit and refit this connection line as soon as possible. Ordering the replacement kit and a guide to how to fit it is online on www.advance.ch/easinessrecall For all of their almost 30 years ADVANCE have put the highest priority on good workmanship and excellent products. This is why we get the greater part of our prepared raw materials and fittings from high quality European manufacturers. Nevertheless, even with the greatest diligence and foresight technical problems with materials can, unfortunately, not be completely ruled out. We apologize to all EASINESS customers for any concerns or inconvenience raised by this safety notice. If you have any questions or are uncertain what to do please contact your ADVANCE dealer.
FAQ
Which connection line on which EASINESS/EASINESS 2 reversible harness is affected?
It is only the main line (the strap that actually connects to the reserve) of all EASINESS (delivered from 2012 till 2016) and EASINESS 2 (delivered from 2016 till May 2017); not the top V-section which leads to the shoulder mountings. How can I see if my EASINESS/EASINESS 2 already has a new connection strap that does not have to be changed?
The new section is black – not red, as previously. Furthermore the new one is a bit longer than the old one. What exactly must I do?
The reserve must be taken out of its container in order for a new connection to be made. You can download the instructions for retrofitting and repacking your reserve parachute here: Instructions (PDF) How long does this take?
Depending on the type of reserve bridle to V-connection (Quicklink or loop on loop), the procedure should take between 9 and 15 minutes. What can I do if I would prefer some help?
Please go to your nearest ADVANCE dealer. He will change the strap as a professional.

Today's Mid-Air Collision...

If anyone has any video of the mid-air collision at Mount Caburn today please would you send it to Dave Thompson at the BHPA. Please also let me have a copy if you would.

By a complete miracle nobody was fatally injured, but one of pilots was hospitalised (edit) with what transpired to be very serious injuries that will put him out of action for most of this season.

This is a warning to all pilots to be vigilant whenever they are flying and to remember to break right, i.e. pull the right brake hard, if a head on collision seems imminent. Preferably don't fly in such a manner that avoiding action is ever necessary, but be ready to perform it at all times...

777 Brake Pulleys

Apparently a number of 777 Rooks have had issues with pulleys jamming.
Don't assume that other 777 gliders are unaffected.

Please check yours and keep checking them.

777 are offering a fix.

Pages